Jesmond By-elections

The only two by-elections held across Newcastle since May 2024 both took place in Jesmond - North Jesmond in September 2024 and South Jesmond in August 2025. Looking “under the bonnet” of these results suggests that major changes in voting patterns can be expected in the City Council elections in May.

The forthcoming elections will see all 78 council seats contested across 26 newly-drawn wards. These boundary changes make analysing trends more difficult but, with the two by-elections coving the all of the new Jesmond ward, a pretty clear picture emerges for at least one of these contests. 

The North Jesmond by-election in September 2024 saw the Liberal Democrats hold the seat with over 64% of the vote, up 16.4% on their May 2024 result. The Labour vote fell sharply to just over 20%. The Lib Dems also took share from both the Greens and Conservatives, who polled only 8% and 3% respectively. Standing for the first time in North Jesmond, Reform UK took 2.3% of the vote. 

The South Jesmond by-election in August 2025 saw the Greens take a seat from Labour, with their vote again collapsing, this time falling into third place. The Lib Dems increased their share of the vote, to finish just 55 votes behind the Greens. Again, Reform UK stood for the first time and gained close to 11% of the vote.

The new Jesmond ward for the May 2026 elections comprises all of the old North Jesmond ward along with two of the three polling districts of the old South Jesmond ward. A weighted average can be used to compute the combined results of the two by-elections as if there had been a contest for the new Jesmond ward.

The clear winner in this new ward are the Liberal Democrats with over 50% of the vote. Labour fall to third place with just under 19% of the vote, slightly behind the Greens on just over 20%. Reform replace the Conservatives, with just over 6% - having not fielded candidates previously.

An analysis of vote changes and vote swings helps to highlight the underlying trends behind these results.

The big winners are the Liberal Democrats, with a 12.4% increase in their share of the vote, and swings to them from all other parties.

The big losers are Labour, with an 18.2% fall in their vote share, and swings against them to all the other parties.

The growth of Reform UK of  over 6%, having not contested either seat previously, saw them benefit from swings to them from Labour, the Conservatives and, interestingly, the Greens. With a well-funded national campaign behind them in May suggests their vote share is likely to rise significantly.

Despite winning the South Jesmond by-election, the Greens performance is mixed. Measured across the new Jesmond seat they were only able to take vote share from Labour and the Conservatives, falling back against both the Lib Dems and Reform UK. It is very unlikely that they can make up a 30% deficit to the Lib Dems, and could find themselves challenged by Reform.